Enabling a leading pipe manufacturer to assess regional and segment level growth and make data-backed decisions on where to locate future manufacturing capacity


A leading North American industrials manufacturing company with a strong growth trajectory consistently struggled to meet customer demand due to manufacturing and supply chain constraints. The constraints were, in part, a symptom of their highly-siloed functional departments with sales, manufacturing, and supply chain setting output targets and production schedules independently and without sufficient collaboration. Additionally, many manufacturing facilities were operating at capacity and had limited or no space for additional machines to support growth

The client engaged Axiom to help develop a long-term growth forecast and identify at a more granular level where growth will come from and how certain product lines and segments would grow relative to each other in different geographies. The team was also tasked with assessing the ~25-plant manufacturing network to identify the number and type of equipment needed and if necessary, optimal locations for a new plant(s)

Client Background:
• $1 billion+ Industrial products manufacturer
• Dominant position in Canadian market, large and growing US presence
• Two core product offerings – one highly differentiated, the other highly commoditized
• Commodity products further hampered by poor shipping economics – to compete profitably, manufacturing must be located close to customers


A) Growth Modeling

Axiom developed an iterative approach to forecasting growth – starting with client’s historical sales at the zip code and product line level, Axiom used both forward- and backward-looking macroeconomic indicators to develop estimates for organic growth by segment and geography for the next five years

Next, the team worked closely with sales leaders to translate their deep qualitative knowledge of customers and competitors into quantitative adjustments across geographies taking into account key strategic priorities and new product launches. From there discrete adjustments we’re made at the product line level to account for areas of strategic focus and/or new product launches.


Growth Model

B) Location Optimization

With a clear view of growth over the next five years, Axiom utilized the client’s manufacturing data to quantify the gaps between total theoretical output (across all plants and machines) and the forecast demand in order to quantify the number and type of machines the client needed to add to its manufacturing footprint. Partnering with engineering and manufacturing leads, Axiom assessed the current manufacturing footprint, identified where there was physical space or land to expand facilities, and estimated the costs for buildout.

In parallel Axiom developed a manufacturing location optimization model that combined a host of county- and state-level metrics including labor availability, land/construction/utility/labor costs, and freight to estimate CAPEX investment and annual OPEX based on plant location and scope (i.e. product mix produced)

Client footprint expansion


  • Provided a “single source of truth” for departments across the organization, enabling better alignment of growth targets and manufacturing production schedules
  • For differentiated product: identified over $15 million in potential CAPEX savings by identifying low-cost locations for a new manufacturing capacity
  • For commodity product: identified locations for new manufacturing where up to 20% savings on annual OPEX (including freight) were possible

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